The statistics are in, the large retail chains are reducing inventories by as much as 20% from their typical high level during the Christmas quarter. Of course this automatically means they will sell approximately 10-15% less then last year, as they have predetermined what they can  possibly sell based on their available inventory.

This could mean a bonanza for the small store who inventoried a little more, has higher prices and broader selection and will attract some additional Christmas shopping when the major stores run out of inventory before the season is ends.

Plan accordingly.

It also appears that Black Friday will no longer be the event it has been in the past as large chains are beginning Friday sales a month in advance, announcing through mailers, email, ads,  that they are having Black Friday sales every Friday for the entire month of November. Problem is, it will take the urge out of the consumer to attack on Black Friday and experience the best  one time sales. It built a furor of sales. Now with their attempt to start earlier and sell more with four Black Fridays, I bet the gross revenue will be lower and the net profit  will also be lower.

In fact the best guess is that there will be a significant number of last minute shoppers taking advantage of last minute sales, the lowest pricing of all.

In short this will be a tough Fourth quarter and will require clear strategizing and impeccable implementation. Figure out what your plan will be and execute with precision, carefully.